Reports

Texas has experienced a significant increase in its foreign-born population, with over 10% of all foreign-born individuals in the US residing there by 2013. Approximately one in six Texas residents was born in another country. This brief explores the drivers of this growth, revealing that over half of the net migration to Texas in 2012-2013 was by foreign-born individuals, and domestic migration accounted for nearly 40% of the state's foreign-born population increase.

Recent Census data suggest a new pattern of immigration is emerging in Texas. Traditionally, Texas immigration has been dominated by people originating in Latin America, particularly Mexico. Following the 2007-2009 recession, immigration from Mexico has declined sharply. In 2005, 56.8 percent of all non-citizen immigrants originated in Mexico. By 2013, Mexican-origin immigrants made up only 27.1 percent of all non-citizen immigrants. This decline is being offset by non-Latin American immigrants, especially those of Asian origin. In 2005, Asian-origin immigrants comprised 17.3 percent of all non-citizen immigrants. By 2013, the Asian-origin share had risen to 40.4 percent. With this shift in immigrant origins, the immigration stream to Texas has become much more diverse than in the past. Using a standard measure of diversity where 1.00 represents maximum diversity, we find that immigrant diversity in Texas has risen from 0.67 in 2005 to 0.90 in 2013. With this rise, Texas’ immigrant diversity has become similar to that of legacy immigration destinations such as California (0.93) and New York (0.95). These recent patterns suggest a new kind of 21st century immigration which will lead to an increasingly diverse Texas population.

Migration significantly influences the size, composition, and age structure of Texas' population. Recent migration patterns have contributed to the state's substantial population growth, which is projected to continue. By 2050, Texas is expected to have a population of 54.4 million, compared to 31.2 million without migration. Migration also impacts the age distribution, with a smaller share of the population over 65 and a larger share in the 15-64 age group. These migration trends have implications for supporting the elderly population in the future.